uncertainty

30 October 2022

Life is full of uncertainty. Mine perhaps more so than most. But then the universe is built on uncertainty. The whole universe is driven by quantum physics….. Hold tight for a physics lesson….. Fundamental to quantum physics is the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. I think this and quantum mechanics generate some of the most unexpected and counter-intuitive effects. Firstly the Uncertainty Principle says the more we pin down the location of a particle, the less we know about its momentum and vice versa. Then quantum physics describes particles as probability waves, the particles can simultaneously be in an infinite number of places – there is uncertainty actually where the particle is – that is until it is observed. The act of observing or measuring the particle causes the probability wave to collapse and so we can identify a particle’s location – within the constraints of the uncertainty principle.

For me, the best example is the double slit experiment. The piccy shows water waves emerging through two slits. The waves interact with each other – sometimes reinforcing the peaks and troughs, sometimes – where a peak meets a trough – cancelling each other out. 

This same interference pattern happens when for example a beam of electrons is fired at two slits. If electrons were just particles, it would be like firing paint balls through the slits – you wouldn’t see an interaction pattern. But electrons generation interference proving they act like waves – probability waves. This gets most strange with one more step – where uncertainty comes in. If you turn down the rate of electron firing so it is just one electron at a time, you still get an interference pattern. The electron is passing through both slits at the same time and the probability waves of each interact. The probability waves of one electron are interacting with themselves. The electron is passing through both slits simultaneously. So we are uncertain where it is. Until you measure it. If you put a detector on each slit to see which slit the electron passes through the observation collapses the probability wave and the electron acts like a paintball, only travels through one slit and there is no interference pattern. All because we forced the electron to ‘decide’ by looking for it.

Brain still with me? Only two more.

Quantum entanglement – very simple view – let’s assume there is a collision of fundamental particles (like at CERN) and we know the result is always going to be one black particle and one white particle. One particle flies off into outer space past our solar system. The other particle we keep in a box. The particle we have is a probability wave – it is not even fair to say it could be black it could be white – it is both – until we look at it. The moment we look at it, it ‘decides’ which colour it is. The Instant we look and determine the colour – maybe black – the other particle across the universe becomes the opposite -white. But until we look it is uncertain what we have in the box – or rather it is not uncertain – we have a probability of either at the same time. This seems to violate the speed of light, but it is ‘just’ entanglement.

This leads to many many many interesting ideas – one is multiple worlds. Everything is built on probability waves, as shown by the double slit experiment – the electron takes every path simultaneously. Every probability is played out. Which in theory means in another world we found we had a black particle and the white one escaped across the universe.

Right now scientists are struggling to understand how the probability waves collapses – is it a human observing it? Is it a cat observing it? Is it a machine? But a really small quantum machine doesn’t collapse the probability wave – so what does?

Stupidly it is not dissimilar to the old question – “If a tree falls in the forest and there is no one there to hear it – does it make a sound?”

Uncertainty is everywhere.

My local radiologist has looked at my last 2 sets of scans – about 6 weeks ago and about 5 month ago. Each time the report has been ‘stable’. Then the PIPAC trial radiologist reviews them and says disease progression. So I’m now scoring 36-39 out of 39 for cancer on the peritoneum – I’m just about off the scale full of cancer. And progression rules me out of PIPAC, but not without frustrating uncertainty of ‘stable’ vs ‘progression’.

Then constant worry. What’s happening on the outside of my bowels? Disease there will be what kills me. The scans will not see that before it is too late. The effects will be noticed first – restricted bowel, blockage, possible operation, re occurrence, death. Possibly only weeks from blockage to death.

My diet is restricted to avoid blockages for as long as possible – no skins, no nuts, no bread, no pips or seeds, pretty close to meat, dairy, potatoes (without skins), white pasta, white rice. Ever tried cooking in reverse? Ever tried taking beansprouts out of Singapore rice noodles? Stir fry is not fast in reverse – uncertainty – is that a beansprout or a fat noodle? It goes cold very quickly – one beansprout at a time. I’ve switched to special fried rice. Peas are easier to see and remove.

“You should be having a poo every 24 hours” says the oncologist. So if I pass 24 hours uncertainty sets in – is this a blockage? Is this the start of the end?

At the other end, well same end really, chemo causes, shall we say, a rather loose bowel movement – generating different uncertainty –   how far can I be from the bathroom, do I trust that fart?

The scan report says – the cancer on the outside of the liver has shrunk a little. Well is that because the blood can get to that area more easily and so carry the chemo? Does that mean that unlike the peritoneum any disease on the bowel may have better blood supply and the chemo is fighting well there? No one knows.

Can I risk a bit of literally forbidden fruit – can I eat a lovely strawberry or two. If hours later a stomach pain occurs – have I sealed my death warrant with a strawberry?  I don’t know. Until I can have a poo.

Can I go to that social event? Will I be feeling well enough. Let’s book in events when it’s not my chemo feeling shit weekend, so every other week. Oh, doctor says tests show your body is not up to chemo this week, come back next week. But, er, that will mess up my social diary. Uncertainty – change cycle, miss friends, or skip two weeks not one, see friends but let the cancer grow?

It was November 2 years ago when the peritoneal surgical expert stuck a camera inside, said nothing we can do for you. “You’ve got between 6 months and 2 years life expectancy”. A year later I saw a top liver surgeon where he said “There’s nothing I can do for you but you’ve done really well, we have a wall here of outstanding patients”. Then last week I saw an immunologist about a possible trial, who said, “2 years chemo without a break impressive, no one with your condition lives more than 2 years – well done”. Not really what you want to hear – better to hear you are normal, progressing as everyone does, and they live for 15 years.

Back to reality – today – it seems my liver is finally giving in, it has processed too much chemo. My blah blah levels are 5 times what they should be. “We may need to pause the chemo for it to recover.” More uncertainty. Oh and liver malfunction is often a barrier to entry for any trial. Will I be eligible, even if the tumour profile is a match for the trial?- that’s uncertain.

Chin up . There’s a different world out there, where the probability wave didn’t collapse and give me cancer. There’s a Russ out there living a healthy life, in fact, as every possibility is played out, there’s one where I’m the richest and happiest man in the world.